i'm just wondering how Meta will fair IF the metaverse doesn't take off the way they expect. I mean it's such a big bet. Google has made many bets in the past and some worked but most did not.
I've been thinking a lot about Meta's investment in the metaverse, and while I'm intrigued by the possibilities, I can't help but see some potential problems.
The biggest issue I see is the need for an expensive VR headset to fully experience the metaverse. While many people are willing to invest in a new phone every few years, I'm not sure that the metaverse holds the same appeal.
Even though phones started out as a mediocre experience, the iPhone form factor made them indispensable. I don't see how the metaverse will follow a similar trajectory, especially since it requires such a significant investment.
In hindsight, I wonder if Meta should have focused more on their AI learning, as I imagine they're using AI heavily to moderate the world's chatter. While it's not the kind of AI that's getting all the buzz right now, I think it has huge potential, and could be the valuable asset for Meta going forward.
Correct. They should have invested more in their AI. They have is pytorch right. They had the early lead in the AI. They could have been at the leading edge of LLMs. Instead they focused on VR
I think the Metaverse will fail, but I think Meta can maintain a product in VR and a VR marketplace. Like the game console model that has proven succesful previously.
A metaverse like community platform will probably gain major popularity one day, when headsets are seamlessly blended into a casual consumer product that people feel cool wearing in a room of people. Until then, social VR platforms are niche because the target market is niche too. The network effect is diminished as well because the barrier for entry is so high.
I really think the problem for mass adoption is coolness and seamlessless. By seamless I mean, not removing you from present company and not requiring more than a simple pair of fashionable goggles or glasses.
From that perspective Meta is already dead. The metaverse is an utterly dead on arrival concept.
There's no plausible VR technology that can make it practical in the pipeline at all: it's an idea in the realm of "implanted cyberdecks are cheap and accessible" before it becomes the sort of thing anyone would need.
If they cut the Metaverse spending tomorrow, there's still a huge legacy ads business throwing off a ton of revenue. The company will do fine. It probably will not grow to Apple size.
Also note that from an accounting standpoint, the metaverse spend is not being treated and amortized as an investment. Instead, it's a cash expense. This means when Zuck decides he no longer needs to spend 10B+/year on it, that money will mostly drop right to the bottom line. The existing business is a cash volcano.
Almost certainly the play is going to be to invest more in instagram to steal features from other social media apps. Thats Meta’s strategy. The Metaverse is not gonna work.
