I agree, there are some nuggets in here. But I think it's more written for people who want to see why Microsoft is declining than for people who want to see if Microsoft is declining. It doesn't seriously entertain alternative explanations for Microsoft's revenue dip and Apple's >$1,000-market surge, and in turn, I have a hard time seriously entertaining Gruber's thesis.
Perhaps you have your own theory to explain this shift? Instead of sniping at Gruber, for trying to explain a very real shift in the market, if there's a better explanation, then link to it or share it.
Rare is the market event with a single possible explanation. If this is not obvious, here are some examples:
--
Microsoft's Revenue Drop
* PC buyers care about their computers less than Apple buyers, so in a global economic downturn, they cut back on new computer purchases moreso than Apple buyers
* PC buyers are waiting on Windows 7 (mentioned in passing by Gruber)
* PC buyers feel higher levels of satisfaction with their computers than in previous years, and feel an unusually low need to upgrade
* PC buyers have consolidated their personal inventory, perhaps owning only a single laptop (maybe work issued) as opposed to a laptop and a desktop
* Microsoft is not attracting first-time computer buyers as much as in previous years
* PC buyers are switching to Apple
--
Apple's Growth in >$1,000 Sales
* There are fewer PC competitors in the market
* PC buyers feel that equal or greater value is achieved in the <$1,000 market
* The >$1,000 market has contracted around Apple
* Apple is attracting more first time computer buyers than in previous years
* PC buyers are switching to Apple
--
I don't know how probably true these explanations are, before or after reading Gruber's article.
I like Gruber's assessment. It draws some simple conclusions which illustrate that Apple is not the "little ol' computer company" it was derided for 10-15 years ago. It also illustrates how Apple's might could actually pose a real threat of extinction to companies just like MS in the coming years/decades.
I've also assessed things Apple/MS in a post of my own. I don't think it's become public realization yet, but Microsoft is scared. Apple poses a serious threat, and they have recent experience in starting the long and dreadful decline in the browser space to help them get a taste of the backlash that's coming.
