> but now that renewables are the cheapest form of energy, I believe this huge, well-funded demand will accelerate the growth of non-carbon energy sources
I think the renewables would have been built at the same rate anyway precisely because they're so cheap; but nuclear power, being expensive, would not be built if this bubble had not happened, and somehow nuclear does seem to be getting some of this money.
> but nuclear power, being expensive, would not be built if this bubble had not happened, and somehow nuclear does seem to be getting some of this money
Eh, it's generally SMRs, which remain kinda vapourware-y. I'd be a little surprised if anything concrete comes of it, tbh; I suspect that it is mostly PR cover for reactivating coal plants and the like. (The one possibly-real thing might be the Three Mile Island restart, but that in itself isn't particularly consequential.)
Not at all. Old paid of nuclear plants are competitive but new builds are insanely expensive leading to $140-220/MWh prices for the ratepayers before factoring in grid stability and transmission costs.[1]
The US has zero commercial reactors under construction and this is for one reason: economics.
The recent announcements from the hyperscalers are PPAs. If the company building the reactor can provide power at the agreed price they will take it off their hands. Thus creating a more stable financial environment to get funding.
They are not investing anything on their own. For a recent example NuScale another SMR developer essentially collapsed when their Utah deal fell through when nice renders and PowerPoints met real world costs and deadlines. [2]
That cost is excluding grid stability and transmission costs.
From what I’ve understood PG&E’s largest problem is the massive payouts and infrastructure upgrades needed from the wildfires, not the cost of the electricity itself.
Thanks! I always thought it is due to people's safety concerns here instead of economic reasons. After all, nuclear plant is quite 'popular' in Europe, and China too these days.
We built a lot of nuclear back in the 70s and 80s which we still rely on with long term operation upgrades.
For modern nuclear power the only nuclear reactor under construction in France is Flamanville 3 which is 6x over budget and 12 years late on a 6 year construction timeline.
Hinkley Point C in the UK is in a similar quagmire and Olkiluoto 3 finally got finished last year after a near 20 year construction timeline.
Politically there's some noise from conservative politicians who can't hold a climate change denial position anymore, but still need to be contrarians.
That French capacity was largely built a long time ago, though. Only a couple of nuclear plants have been built on Europe in the last decade, and they've generally overrun _horribly_ on costs.
Basically, nuclear fission is clean baseload power. Wind and solar are not baseload power sources. They don't really compete. See discussion here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41858892
TRISO (HALEU) reactors use more than 1.5 times the natural uranium per unit of energy produced because the higher burnup is offset by higher enrichment inputs (see page 11 at https://fuelcycleoptions.inl.gov/SiteAssets/SitePages/Home/1...), and the fuel is even more expensive to manufacture, but they are completely safe. This is a technology from the 1960's but it's attractive now because so much money is chasing clean baseload nuclear fission for data centers.
These "impossible to melt down" TRISO small modular nuclear fission reactors are what Elon Musk was talking about on the campaign trail last week, when he said:
ELON MUSK: "The dangers of nuclear power are greatly
overstated. You can make a nuclear reactor that is
literally impossible to melt down even if you tried to
melt it down. You could try to bomb the place, and it
still wouldn't melt down. There should be no regulatory
issues with that. There should be significant nuclear
reform."
> Basically, nuclear fission is clean baseload power. Wind and solar are not baseload power sources. They don't really compete.
This means you don't understand how the grid works. California's baseload is ~15 GW while it peaks at 50 GW.
New built nuclear power is wholly unsuitable for load following duty due to the economics. It is an insane prospect when running at 100% 24/7, and even worse when it has to adapt.
Both nuclear power and renewables need storage, flexibility or other measures to match their inflexibility to the grid.
See the recent study where it was found that nuclear power needs to come down 85% in cost to be competitive with renewables, due to both options requiring dispatchable power to meet the grid load.
> The study finds that investments in flexibility in the electricity supply are needed in both systems due to the constant production pattern of nuclear and the variability of renewable energy sources. However, the scenario with high nuclear implementation is 1.2 billion EUR more expensive annually compared to a scenario only based on renewables, with all systems completely balancing supply and demand across all energy sectors in every hour. For nuclear power to be cost competitive with renewables an investment cost of 1.55 MEUR/MW must be achieved, which is substantially below any cost projection for nuclear power.
> These companies want clean baseload power, with no risk of meltdown, and they're willing to pay for it. Here's what Amazon has chosen
The recent announcements from the hyperscalers are PPAs. If the company building the reactor can provide power at the agreed price they will take it off their hands. Thus creating a more stable financial environment to get funding.
They are not investing anything on their own. For a recent example NuScale another SMR developer essentially collapsed when their Utah deal fell through when nice renders and PowerPoints met real world costs and deadlines.
Then we should be able to remove the enormous subsidy the Price Anderson act adds to the industry right? Let all new reactors buy insurance for a Fukushima level accident in the open market.
Nuclear powerplants are currently insured for ~0.05% of the cost of a Fukushima style accident and pooled together the entire US industry covers less than 5%.
I want to point out to anyone who's interested in the nuclear angle that even before the AI data center demand story arrived, the uranium market was facing a persistent undersupply for the first time in its many decades of history. As a result, the (long-term contract) price of uranium has been steadily rising for years: https://www.cameco.com/invest/markets/uranium-price
After Fukushima (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41768726), Japanese reactors were shut down and there was a glut of uranium available in the spot market. Simultaneously, Kazatomprom flooded the market with cheap ISR uranium. The price of uranium fell far below the cost of production and the mining companies were obliterated. The few miners that survived via their long-term contracts (primarily Cameco) put their less efficient mines into care and maintenance.
Here is a discussion of the uranium mining situtation:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41661768 (including a very risky method of profiting from the undersupply of uranium, stock ticker SRUUF, not recommended). Note that Numerco's uranium spot price was put behind a paywall last week. You can still get the intra-day spot uranium price for free here: https://www.yellowcakeplc.com/
It is also important that the fuel is physically small so you can (and typically, do) store years of fuel on-site at the reactor. Nuclear is "secure" in the sense that it can provide "energy security".
I already linked this above, twice. I know it's a hassle to read, it's Sunday afternoon, so don't worry about it.
It's not important whether you as an individual get this right or not, as long as society reaches the correct conclusion. Thankfully, we're seeing that happen, a worldwide shift toward the adoption of nuclear power.
I think the renewables would have been built at the same rate anyway precisely because they're so cheap; but nuclear power, being expensive, would not be built if this bubble had not happened, and somehow nuclear does seem to be getting some of this money.