With a simulation model, lifetime health-care costs were estimated for a cohort of obese
people aged 20 y at baseline. To assess the impact of obesity, comparisons were made with
similar cohorts of smokers and ‘‘healthy-living’’ persons (defined as nonsmokers with a body
mass index between 18.5 and 25). Except for relative risk values, all input parameters of the
simulation model were based on data from The Netherlands. In sensitivity analyses the effects
of epidemiologic parameters and cost definitions were assessed. Until age 56 y, annual health
expenditure was highest for obese people. At older ages, smokers incurred higher costs.
Because of differences in life expectancy, however, lifetime health expenditure was highest
among healthy-living people and lowest for smokers. Obese individuals held an intermediate
position. Alternative values of epidemiologic parameters and cost definitions did not alter these conclusions.
With a simulation model, lifetime health-care costs were estimated for a cohort of obese people aged 20 y at baseline. To assess the impact of obesity, comparisons were made with similar cohorts of smokers and ‘‘healthy-living’’ persons (defined as nonsmokers with a body mass index between 18.5 and 25). Except for relative risk values, all input parameters of the simulation model were based on data from The Netherlands. In sensitivity analyses the effects of epidemiologic parameters and cost definitions were assessed. Until age 56 y, annual health expenditure was highest for obese people. At older ages, smokers incurred higher costs. Because of differences in life expectancy, however, lifetime health expenditure was highest among healthy-living people and lowest for smokers. Obese individuals held an intermediate position. Alternative values of epidemiologic parameters and cost definitions did not alter these conclusions.