1. Authoritarianism spreads as propaganda and surveillance technologies make it easier for bad actors in weak democracies to cement their power.
2. Over the decade, the US dollar declines modestly versus other major currencies. The U.S. deficit soars, and by the end of the decade U.S. tax rates have increased substantially.
3. Without the UK, EU centralization accelerates, including the formation of a small EU military. France withdraws from NATO.
4. Belarus joins the Russian Federation. Vladimir Putin retires as President of Russia on schedule in 2024, but remains its dominant political figure in a newly created ceremonial role.
5. Chinese pressure and threats on Taiwan to reunify increase, but trigger a surge in Taiwanese nationalism. Xi Jinping remains President of China at the end of the decade. Many foreign companies end operations in China.
6. Another global financial crisis occurs.
7. Global animal populations decline sharply, especially marine animals, amphibians and birds. Food prices increase as global warming negatively impacts agricultural productivity.
Tech predictions:
1. Google gets new leadership by 2022 and attempts to reinvent itself with a renewed focus on privacy and ethics.
2. The use of AI in medicine increases sharply- models that outperform physicians (in a limited number of specialties) proliferate and are deployed primarily outside of hospitals.
3. Many U.S. cable TV networks shutdown.
4. A third major smartphone operating system emerges from a non-Western company.
5. AI progress continues at a rapid pace, prompted in part by advances in emulating biological memory storage and retrieval to greatly reduce upfront training time.
1. Authoritarianism spreads as propaganda and surveillance technologies make it easier for bad actors in weak democracies to cement their power.
2. Over the decade, the US dollar declines modestly versus other major currencies. The U.S. deficit soars, and by the end of the decade U.S. tax rates have increased substantially.
3. Without the UK, EU centralization accelerates, including the formation of a small EU military. France withdraws from NATO.
4. Belarus joins the Russian Federation. Vladimir Putin retires as President of Russia on schedule in 2024, but remains its dominant political figure in a newly created ceremonial role.
5. Chinese pressure and threats on Taiwan to reunify increase, but trigger a surge in Taiwanese nationalism. Xi Jinping remains President of China at the end of the decade. Many foreign companies end operations in China.
6. Another global financial crisis occurs.
7. Global animal populations decline sharply, especially marine animals, amphibians and birds. Food prices increase as global warming negatively impacts agricultural productivity.
Tech predictions:
1. Google gets new leadership by 2022 and attempts to reinvent itself with a renewed focus on privacy and ethics.
2. The use of AI in medicine increases sharply- models that outperform physicians (in a limited number of specialties) proliferate and are deployed primarily outside of hospitals.
3. Many U.S. cable TV networks shutdown.
4. A third major smartphone operating system emerges from a non-Western company.
5. AI progress continues at a rapid pace, prompted in part by advances in emulating biological memory storage and retrieval to greatly reduce upfront training time.