* Demographics does not become not destiny for Western Leftist parties. continued failure of elites to win electorally, and an aging, white, and geographically distributed coalition, that votes reliably, wins most of the time. Immigration has slowed in the US and will continue to slow in other countries. This makes Trump more likely than not to win 2020
Further reading on this POV: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/11/16/the_go...
See also the work of David Runciman from Talking Politics podcast (who makes this argument quite well in a series of lectures)
* Society makes progress on tough issues despite political deadlock. Problems continue to be solved outside of the political process
* Obamacare lurches forward, barely in the US. It likely won’t be repealed, but not much beyond shoring it up will happen even if a Dem is elected in 2020. It’s just too hard for Dems to get to 60 in the senate.
* Amazon continues to grow and possibly triggers antitrust action
* Someone will sadly get seriously hurt or killed due to an Amazon marketplace item of low quality. This may prompt regulation or lawsuits
* Brick and Mortar Retail continues to evolve towards being about physical brand presence for a Web-first business, less about stores selling stuff. This gradual move means there’s no huge commercial real estate crash
* Google loses its way, search market share shrinks, suffers from a serious brain drain, loses ability to develop great products
* Privacy concerns break through even more beyond the Hacker News crowd!
* Lots of unexpected things will happen, totally changing everyone’s predictions!
I likely will disagree with these tomorrow and think of even more important ones! :)
Demographics is destiny, but this does not benefit Western Leftist parties. One political side is producing about 2.5 kids per woman, and the other is producing about 1.5 kids per woman. (numbers for USA) Above 2 is exponential growth, and below 2 is extinction.
The reasonable prediction here is a shift to the right. A few decades may be required before it is dramatic and undeniable.
* Society makes progress on tough issues despite political deadlock. Problems continue to be solved outside of the political process
* Obamacare lurches forward, barely in the US. It likely won’t be repealed, but not much beyond shoring it up will happen even if a Dem is elected in 2020. It’s just too hard for Dems to get to 60 in the senate.
* Amazon continues to grow and possibly triggers antitrust action
* Someone will sadly get seriously hurt or killed due to an Amazon marketplace item of low quality. This may prompt regulation or lawsuits
* Brick and Mortar Retail continues to evolve towards being about physical brand presence for a Web-first business, less about stores selling stuff. This gradual move means there’s no huge commercial real estate crash
* Google loses its way, search market share shrinks, suffers from a serious brain drain, loses ability to develop great products
* Privacy concerns break through even more beyond the Hacker News crowd!
* Lots of unexpected things will happen, totally changing everyone’s predictions!
I likely will disagree with these tomorrow and think of even more important ones! :)