If you want to discourage short-term thinking, make the vesting period longer on executive stock grants. Making companies' performance less transparent just opens up more opportunities for insider trading.

Agree and make it two years for long term capital gains.

> If you want to discourage short-term thinking, make the vesting period longer on executive stock

It’s 3 to 4 years on average. This isn’t relevant to quarterly filing requirements.

Could also price in negative externalities of short term trading with higher taxes for that behavior, nudging the markets to focus on value driving investments rather than speculation

Like short term vs long term capital gains tax rates?

Either that or implement it at the exchange level. Eg. if accredited investors sell a stock in <3 months, you pay X% as a tax at the moment of sale - or maybe different fees for <1 hour, <1 month, <1 year

Harder to attract talent though (not saying you’re wrong)

The problem isn't the executives, it's the boards.

But board members are largely just a proxy for the large shareholders anyway. E.g., short-term investment strategies are not going away.

Working C-levels would almost always much rather take the longer view against the wishes of their boards.

Then you are free to sue whoever you think is violating your copyright. That's one of Serpapi's defenses: the owner of the copyright needs to sue, not a non-exclusive licensee of the copyright (Reddit).

This is a great legal defense, but if they are trying to make themselves seen as though they are fighting for the rights of the users and aren't doing the literal same thing that Reddit is doing, that is disingenious.

I wonder if any lawyers could weigh in here. Does this admission that they know the data is the user's make a class-action against SerpApi or whatever a slam-dunk? They're practically publishing their own admission of guilt!

They're not dying, but they're not healthy either. They've been around for 24 years and still haven't figured out how to turn a profit.

I don't want to just copy and paste my previous comment, but this isn't how companies at this size think about declaring profits. See https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47347993

Hence the comment you replied to saying "they print cash". You'll find a lot of big companies work this way: high free cashflow, because they earn a lot more than they spend, but then the spare cash is either reinvested or paid out via share buybacks. Declaring a profit isn't advantageous compared to the other options available.

If I was a NOAA meteorologist I'd be making bank insider trading temperature prediction markets.

Maybe this could be an alternative funding source for weather prediction, haha.

How can prediction markets be priced with continuous instead of discrete predictions?

They usually divide into buckets

But wouldn’t that be a feature of the prediction market, not a bug?

If someone really smart knows what will happen, that will make the market’s predictive ability more accurate.

The meteorologist making the observation has the ability to sway the outcome. "Those automated observations were wrong, turns out the maximum temperature today was 61F not 60F." This already happens all the time. Whether insiders are doing this to win in prediction markets is up for debate.

That's always been a just-so story invented to justify insider trading. If weather predictors always bet on a weather prediction market, why would anyone else? They'd be guaranteed to lose money.

1) Not all expert weather predictors agree. They can bet against each other.

2) retail traders lose money and know far less than institutional investors, but do retail traders participate in the stock market? Of course they do.

Yet somehow Microsoft Copilot doesn't know how to use that tooling.

Promotion-driven development happens at Microsoft just like any other big tech company.

This is totally true, if you ignore the entire history of taxation in the United States during the 19th and 20th centuries.

Taxes are a part of a broader redistributive system.

Mobility is given by ensuring that all have equal opportunity. Opportunity to learn, opportunity to start a business. Etc.

Tesla single-handedly created the market for EVs. There are over 9 million Teslas on the road worldwide. That's a much bigger return on their subsidies than most government programs.

Have you forgotten about the Nissan Leaf? Tesla created the market for expensive sports car EVs, but Nissan made the market for EVs for the mainstream.

The Tesla Roadster came out first, by a couple years, but only sold about 2500 over its lifetime. By the time Tesla got its second model out, a couple years after Leaf went on sale, Leaf had 50k sales.

It took until 2020 for Tesla cumulative sales to catch up with Leaf cumulative sales.

The first generation Leaf belongs more to the early curiosity phase of EVs than the mainstream. Funny looking, less than 100 miles range, and slow charging via a port that never caught on outside of Japan. Tesla didn't just build a car that addressed the biggest EV objections (range, charging speed, looks), they also built a DCFC network that has more ports than all of the other ones combined. Without the charging network there is no EV market.

Maybe that's true but maybe it also isn't? Tesla or no Tesla, China would've thrown incentives at domestic EV makers to reduce their dependence on oil imports. Without Tesla maybe there would be fewer EVs in North America and Europe today. But I don't see history playing out very differently elsewhere. The economics are just too strong.

Human knowledge belongs to humanity. Of course the people who want to paywall it and extract rent will try to concoct some ethical basis for their rent seeking. Anthropic appears to be choosing the xenophobic route.

I don’t think China will see it that way if they take the lead. So, why help them?

They wont take a lead becuase the ai companies have a lot more data for continual learning for their RL systems to work. I would not be untrusting of the chinese. They are way ahead of us in fusion technology and they regularly keep sharing that knowledge with us