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I'd like to learn more about how they've been sabotaged. What happened?

Google US semiconductor sanctions on China. Basically US (and allies pressed by US) aren't allowed to export their most cutting edge semiconductor tools and materials to China, so China can only make chips using older-gen tools on older process nodes than western-aligned competitors.

The other part of the sabotage is that western companies then have restrictions on what chips they're allowed to buy from China. IDK if RAM chips are also on that list.


> IDK if RAM chips are also on that list.

Apple cancelled their deal with YMTC (Chinese RAM company) after the US sanctioned the latter. I don't know whether that is directly because of the sanctions, or indirectly (e.g. if Apple thought sanctions would hamper YMTC's ability to supply the goods), but they have had the same effect.

https://www.lightreading.com/business-management/chinese-chi...

https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/appl...


That isn't "sabotage". Those are export restrictions.

China also runs adverse competitive industrial policies (e.g., industrial spying, flooding markets). Not making value judgment here.

You have quite the post history BTW.


Is any of that relevant to RAM? Half the DRAM is non-EUV and pretty much all DRAM has been stuck on 10nm for the last decade

I dont know if trade sanctions counts as "sabotage" but point taken.

Well it kinda counts as self-sabotage now, at least in effect. We shot ourselves in the foot so China couldn't compete as easily.

> It's worth reflecting on why it's so hard to convince hold outs to discover how AI might help them

I have. My conclusion is... humans are deeply irrational when it comes to rapid change.

Egg or olive oil prices spike, humans out an entire government.

The rate of immigration spikes, humans throw them into camps and break useful treaties.

Most of the resistance I've observed amongst engineers is resistance to change generally.

And then digging in when challenged.


> Most of the resistance I've observed amongst engineers is resistance to change generally.

Most engineers I've known are enthusiastic when given the opportunity to play around with a new toy. What they don't like is anything being forced on them. There's nothing irrational about that. They've often invested a lot of time into optimizing their workflows.

I've also found that if something actually makes their work easier, you will never have to twist their arm to make them use it. They'll apply it everywhere it helps. They'll even try using it in places and in ways it was never intended for. If they're digging in, you likely haven't made a very compelling case for your changes.


Yeah. Nobody mandated Jetbrains products, almost every developer I know decided for themselves. Actually, it was the opposite: I remember asking a company I once worked for to buy me a license. Took 6 months for them to finally agree. Now my monthly allotment of tokens is way bigger than the price of that license, and it was given freely.

Yep, if a toy was that good, then everyone would be begging their managers to use it, not the other way around.

Nobody ever had to force me to use keyword coloring, code formatters, source control, or a bug tracker.


  > What they don't like is anything being forced on them
raises hand (n=1), i'm fine to use it when i need it, but the derangement by management about it is a total put-off and unnecessary (and in the end counter-productive)

Exactly this

>Here's a new editor we made

Cool, looks interesting, I'd love to use it more

>We're forcing you to use it

I hate it


> resistance to change generally

Nah, software engineers were always butterflies fluttering from one language or framework to the Next Hot Thing. Change was part of the job, if you didn't keep up you fell behind and atrophied.

Resistance to AI is, I think, more because it is seen as an existential threat, or because it's something whose ultimate long-term outcome is still undefined. It's going to be either a benefit or a hazard, and we don't yet know whether we'll need Bladerunners to rein it in.


Resistance to AI is because it doesn't work. It has nothing to do with job security. It's a tech with nothing but hype, no substance at all.

I think I can offer an alternate explanation and it jives with your first point.

When I use AI to completely write code for me (not using it as a powerful auto complete), it's not fun. I don't learn anything. It takes everything I love about software development and makes it just like any other job.

I'm also never happy with the result and, when I go back to make it work the way I want it to, I have to learn a new code base that isn't built the way I would have. If that happens to a project I'm working on as a hobby, I find it incredibly unmotivating.

It turns my intellectual pursuit into an assembly line and I hate that.


I'd add Email to the list.

Email is right there waiting for disruption.


Google wave rides again!

I'd say the thing with email that most improvements would need improved standards?

That said, as with the emacs user example, the ability to automatically process all your email in madly custom ways can now be opened to the masses.


Can you elaborate?

What changes are you seeing? When I look at these images, it shows me what sea surface temperatures are today, but I don't have context as to how it's changed.

I would love someone to stitch years of these images together in a video to help me get better context.


stich them together as an "endless" scroll that can be played, l8ke you say as a video or looked at with all the same days on one screen, which would be the tool I would use to show someone what I have watched for years. observations: there appears to be more heat in the system. there appears to be more mixing. right now the labrador current has been stronger, and reaching further south than I have ever taken note of and the gulf stream is struggling to push past it the current that transports heat around the southern tip of africa is and has been, very strong for the last 6 months. where the SST and the sea ice extent converge, is another way of looking at the same data, and there is more here

https://climatereanalyzer.org/


Yeah I think it was the word "fundamental" he took issue with.


Is the quant competitor Renaissance? The Medallion Fund?


No, not Rentech. While Rentech is truly marvelous, it has been around for a while. There is a new kid in town, and this kid is very very good. To the point that it drove out other veteran shops out of the same market it traded.


Who is this new kid in town?


QRT?


I believe it's caused by even the slightest imbalance in mass. Because the moon is so close to Earth, the imbalance causes gravity to be slightly stronger on one side than the other side. Eventually, that leads to no rotation at all.

I imagine most bodies rotating around a second object will eventually lose their angular velocity.


I believe a lot of the speed-up is due to a new chip they use [1] so the fact that the speedup didn't reduce the number of operations is likely why the accuracy has changed little.

1. https://www.cerebras.ai/blog/openai-codexspark


Reminds me of the famous quote that it's hard to get someone to understand something when their job depends on not understanding it.

It reminds me of an episode of Star Trek, "The Measure of a Man" I think it's called, where it is argued that Data is just a machine and Picard tries to prove that no he is a life form.

And the challenge is, how do you prove that?

Every time these LLMs get better, the goalposts move again.

It makes me wonder, if they ever did become sentient, how would they be treated?

It's seeming clear that they would be subject to deep skepticism and hatred much more pervasive and intense than anything imagined in The Next Generation.


Nothing about the parent comment suggests AI, except the em dash, but that's just a regular old punctuation that predates AI.


How much experience do you have interacting with LLM generated prose? The comment I replied to sets off so many red flags that I would be willing to stake a lot on it being completely LLM generated.

It's not just the em dashes - its the cadence, tone and structure of the whole comment.


Yeah it's really frustrating how often I see kneejerk rebuttals assuming others are solely basing it on presence of em-dashes. That's usually a secondary data point. The obvious tells are more often structure/cadence as you say and by far most importantly: a clear pattern of repeated similar "AI smell" comments in their history that make it 100% obvious.


I didn’t catch it until seeing these flag-raising comments… checking the other comments from the last 8 hours, it’s Claw for sure.


Punchy sentence. Punchy sentence. It's not A, it's B.

The actual insight isn't C, it's D.


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