One example - I'm doing research for some fiction set in the late 19th century, when strychnine was occasionally used as a stimulant. I want to understand how / when it would have been used and dosages, and ChatGTP shut down that conversation "for safety".
Yeah. I'm a stickler for accountability falling on drivers, but this really can be an impossible scenario to avoid. I've hit someone on my bike in the exact same circumstance - I was in the bike lane between the parked cars and moving traffic, and someone stepped out between parked vehicles without looking. I had nowhere to swerve, so squeezed my brakes, but could not come to a complete stop. Fortunately, I was going slow enough that no one was injured or even knocked over, but I'm convinced that was the best I could have done in that scenario.
The road design there was the real problem, combined with the size and shape of modern vehicles that impede visibility.
Building on my own experience I think you have to own that if you crash with someone you made a mistake. I do agree that car and road design for bicycles(?) makes it almost impossible to move around if you do not risk things like that.
It is a big deal. It means for a lot of people there's nowhere they can go to actually enjoy the sound of nature. The strategy of getting ahead or staying behind doesn't work when there are switchbacks or crowded trails. The strategy that does work is to get fit enough to go deep into the backcountry because the troglodytes that bring speakers to hikes lack the discipline to ever get that far.
I am interested in this as well. From the article:
```Gas Town is also expensive as hell. You won’t like Gas Town if you ever have to think, even for a moment, about where money comes from. I had to get my second Claude Code account, finally; they don’t let you siphon unlimited dollars from a single account, so you need multiple emails and siphons, it’s all very silly. My calculations show that now that Gas Town has finally achieved liftoff, I will need a third Claude Code account by the end of next week. It is a cash guzzler.'''
Since I am quite capable of shitting up my own code for free, and I've got zero interest in this stupid AI nonsense anyway, I'm vanishingly unlikely to actually use this. But, still: I like to keep half an eye on what is going on, even if I hate it. And I am more than somewhat intrigued about what the numbers actually look like.
Drug costs are dominated by the fixed costs of development. $20/dose may very well cover the marginal cost of production while being far too little to make the overall venture profitable.
It sucks that you need to own a car to get anywhere in most of the US. When my wife and I moved to Southern California from Chicago, we had a single car and tried to make that work for a while, but it was just not doable. We have a grocery store 2 miles away, but any other services are further than walking distance (and even the grocery store requires walking on the shoulder of a busy arterial road at a couple points. I used to bike everywhere in Chicago, but doing so here is too risky).
That said, the problems of car loans are far beyond that - From the article: " The average monthly repayment now stands at more than $750.". That's nuts! I make a solid upper middle-class income, and I can't imagine spending that much on car financing, regardless of the loan length. When we needed a second car, we bought a 6-year-old Volvo station wagon in good condition, it it's still serving us well. Many of my neighbors, who make about half what I do, think we're poor because of it.
Exactly. This is going to come off as incredibly privileged, but I'm not a huge fan of car loans. In fact, I'm not a huge fan of leveraging to afford any asset unless it's appreciating in value or generating income. I buy and drive old, nearly junker cars because I can't afford a $40K new car. I can "afford" the monthly payments on a $40K car, but it's just a terrible financial idea. Totally nutty. A $750 monthly payment (I don't even want to know the term) for something that is losing value every day is absolutely bonkers.
The amount of debt Americans routinely and causally take on is honestly ridiculous.
The standard recommendation of taking out sent so you can invest your money and "make it work for you" frustrates me to no end.
Yes, on paper I can accrue more wealth if I mortgage my house and invest that same amount elsewhere. No, I would not trade owning a house outright for having a house that will be taken from me if I can no longer pay, strict insurance requirements, and a pile of someone else's debt that I call money and ignore the risk implied in investing in someone else's gamble.
I don't think gp comment is advocating doing a cash out re-finance, but to exploit leverage when first financing the purchase.
I used to be very debt averse. Owing a six figure sum seemed like a huge burden. Now I understand that mortgagees are non-callable. If you put 20% down that removes a lot of risk of being underwater. Fannie Mae is eating inflation risk for you. It's a way of smoothing expenses over multiple life stages. With a 30 year mortgage you can get a smaller payment when you're younger, earning less, and paying for daycare. When you're older you're earning more, might be an empty nester, and inflation has made each payment easier. By not rushing to pay off low interest debt you've effectively transferred money from 50 year old you to 30 year old you.
If you stayed employed, locked in a 3% mortgage, and contributed to your 401k, you won the wealth re-distribution game of 2020-2022.
Respectfully, you're effectively describing the argument I take issue with.
> Now I understand that mortgagees are non-callable.
How are you defining non-callable? If you stop paying on your mortgage that sent will eventually be called and you will be kicked out.
> If you put 20% down that removes a lot of risk of being underwater
That removes the risk of being underwater for any market correction sub-20%. Real estate prices in any areas have grown more than that ovwr the last few years, the risk of a 20%+ correction is on the table.
> With a 30 year mortgage you can get a smaller payment
And a 40 year loan would be even smaller. Where do we draw the line, and why? 30 year loans weren't always the norm, you don't have to go too far back to find an average mortgage on 10 or 15 year loans.
> When you're older you're earning more, might be an empty nester, and inflation has made each payment easier.
Income doesn't always move up, and inflation only makes payment easier if you (a) secured a fixed rate loan and (b) stay in the same home long term.
> By not rushing to pay off low interest debt you've effectively transferred money from 50 year old you to 30 year old you.
Or if it doesn't work out, 30 year old you has a home at the expense of 35 year old you.
> If you stayed employed
That's a big if, and you not only need to stay employed, you need wages to at least keep up with true inflation. Your 401k won't matter until you are at an age where you can withdraw, or we have another pandemic-style response where we allow people to cash in 401ks without the early withdrawal fees.
The people in the camp of payoff early often highlight the emotional safety of paying off the debt…
But that logic never made sense to me, because homes are always callable: if you stop paying property taxes, Thats not your house any more.
If house burns down, Thats not your house any more.
Safety comes from optimizing your wealth for size and liquidity.
The person that kept things liquid, leveraged into the stock market 401k etc will be much better in a catastrophic event (job loss, flood, etc) than the person that has less liquid assets and a property tax payment due.
I agree - I think it’s bad advice. And cars make even less sense than houses, which should hopefully appreciate in the long run. People think of car loans like “free money” if I can buy a car on credit and pocket the spread between my investments and my APR.
The problem is:
1) that encourages you to buy more car (and lose more money in depreciation and fees) than you would if you just paid cash for a cheaper car
2) there’s no guarantee you can beat your APR in the short run (to beat your APR you almost always have to move out on the risk frontier… T bills are not doing it)
I view it as: if capturing that marginal spread of whatever% is important to you, you are spending too much money and you’re probably taking your eye off a bigger loss you’re taking by spending all that.
It’s not ridiculous, it’s how the whole system works. People need to live their lives, and if they only way they can get around (or throw a birthday party, or have a funeral, or some other human thing) is to borrow money, they borrow money. Which in turn props up a huge proportion of the businesses that make up the economy.
The problem with old junkers is that if you don’t have the money in cash, how do you fix a major car repair? You can get a loan for a new car with money.
The car “generates income” because it allows you to get to work and hopefully make more than your car note.
You can also take out a loan from a credit union for the repair bill on your older car. Or even putting it on a credit card is an option.
A $3k repair loan is a lot easier to pay off than a $30k new car loan.
A lot of the people I know try to justify “new car fever” and will use some version of “I don’t feel safe in it anymore” or “I don’t think I can trust it.”
It’s a lot easier to get a secured loan for a car than an unsecured loan depending on your credit.
I’ve only had new car fever once. When I was 25 and bought my second car - a Mustang in 1999. I drove my Mercury Tracer that my parents bought me in 1991 as a junior in high school.
But that car was wrecked in 2008. I gave my next car - a Honda Civic - to my step son in 2014 and my next car after that - a 2012 Chevy Sonic bought slightly used from CarMax in 2020 when I started working remotely and we went down to one car.
But I would still much rather by a cheap newish car that I don’t have to worry about than a beater that might put me down or more importantly my wife.
Old car repairs generally don't cost as much as you'd expect, especially when you aren't paying $750/no on a loan plus higher insurance premiums.
My mechanics often perk up when I bring in my 80s era pickup. It has very low miles, they can generally diagnose it with very basic tools, and parts are cheap. When I have the time to work on it myself I appreciate it for those exact same reasons.
Yea, that $750/mo that you're now not paying can be saved to pay for the occasional repair bill that you're going to face while owning a junker car you didn't take on a loan for. Or, not, if you bought a 1995 Toyota Camry or something which is probably going to outlive you.
You mean "rod the block next week because it was used as an uber and before that it was owned by three successive hipsters who didn't change the oil because 'lol it's a Toyota' or whatever"
Dollar for dollar Toyotas were a bad buy as soon as Reddit started trying to tell everyone to buy them.
Right. I buy old cars, but I'm picky as hell and buy ones that have been taken care of, still have parts availability, and are models with proven reliability.
I still recommend anyone buy a later model Buick Lesabre if you find one in good shape. They're very cheap, the 3800 motor is excellent, and are still very comfortable rides that get around 30mpg on the highway.
3800 is in a lot of things. Chevy impala, Monte Carlo, etc. lots of cars benefit from that reliable and easy to maintain engine. Also gets decent gas mileage (not earth shattering but mid-high 20s is friendly to most bank accounts).
Yeah I'll keep an eye out for all of them when I'm in the market. I generally find the best results with the Buicks though, its more common to find one in good shape with a good service history.
The one I drive now was a one owner, it was literally a little old lady's Sunday church car that she sold because she decided to give up her keys. Its not perfect, and the AC compressor needed to be replaced, but they were the kind of owners that took it in ever 3k miles to a mechanic they trusted and fixed whatever the shop recommended.
My first car was a Katrina-damaged Impala that smelled like puke until I hit it with an ozone generator. Drove it for almost 6 years including twice cross country. Most I ever put into it was a new water pump.
And when you buy the car hypothetically and the motor goes out or the transmission within three months?
And it’s one thing if your car breaks down on a side street, it’s completely different if it breaks down on an interstate. If you have a daughter would you be comfortable with her driving an unreliable car? Your wife? Your mother?
A car that averages 15k miles/year, has a maintenance record, and appears in good condition tends to be less likely to be a lemon than most brand new cars.
For an anecdote, consider that Jeep just bricked thousands of new cars, including on interstates 2 weeks ago.
That GM recalled most 6.2l engines made in the last 5 years; ... Toyota engine castings, bmw chain tensioners, Ford Ecoboost coolant passages, Porsche bearings... Most of these problems became apparent before a long term first owner sold (yes, you should do research)
A pre purchase inspection, and all around maintenance (brake, coolant, oil, transmission oil, and differential oil) will get you a long way; a $2k suspension refresh will take you even further.
Sure, your motor or trans can go out on any vehicle and unless you still have a warranty its your problem.
It sucks if you spend $3500 on a car only to spend another $2000 because the transmission went out and the timing was bad luck. I wouldn't recommend anyone buy an old car I'd they have no emergency fund left after the purchase though.
My wife does regularly drive our old cars. If it dies on the highway we'll deal with it. I don't have a daughter, but I wouldn't worry about my kid driving the kind of old cars I pick up - I'm patients picky, and able to work on them myself. The car would be the least of my worries if I had a young daughter with a drivers license.
This country is insanely ego and pride focused or fixated.
Capitalism exploits this in advertising.
Americans throw money at everything and then wonder why they're broke.
Or in the case of cars, people finance a new car and throw money at repairs instead of doing what folks like you and I do. Buy a reliable older car that's cheap to work on. But that takes "learning" and most Americans are convinced that learning is a waste of time, just throw money at the problem.
A common advertising technique is to exploit peoples' problems. Buy Product(tm) and your problem(s) will be solved! Sometimes this problem doesn't even exist but the advertiser will exploit your fear. If you don't buy Product(tm) for your family you don't love them/are putting them in danger/you are not a real man!
Our solution to this was two cars, with one being a tiny well used EV (2015 Fiat 500E) where the range boils down to "dont leave town". Its a fantastic city car. 50% to full is about 3 hour on a 120v wall charger, and that's enough juice to run around our town for a ~week for all kinds of errands.
The other car is a 2023 Leaf with the extended range trim, which is sufficient to get us all around the PNW, although I would hesitate to take it east of the Cacades.
Honestly, it sounds really compelling to me. I do a lot of stuff outside - search and rescue, climbing, etc, and I need a rugged case for that, but having a thin, light phone when I'm at home or doing something with less chance to damage the phone is pretty nice, so thin phone + case is the best of both worlds.
> AI 2027 is unmitigated bullshit, but with graphs, so people think there is a science to it.
AI 2027 is classic Rationalist/LessWrong/AI Doomer Motte-Bailey - it's a science fiction story that pretends to be rigorous and predictive but in such a way that when you point out it's neither, the authors can fall back to "it's just a story".
At first I was surprised at how much traction this thing got, but this is the type of argument that community has been refining for decades and this point, and it's pretty effective on people who lack the antibodies for it.
I'm very much an AI doomer myself, and even I don't think AI 2027 holds water. I find myself quite confused about what its proponents (including Scott Alexander) are even expecting to get from the project, because it seems to me like the median result will be a big loss of AI-doomer credibilty in 2028 when the talking point shifts to "but it's a long tailed prediction!"
Same here. I ask the reader not to react to AI 2027 by dismissing the possibility that it is quite dangerous to let the AI labs continue with their labbing.
This is feeling like a retread of climate change messaging. Serious problem requiring serious thought (even without “AI doom” as the scenario, just the political economic and social disruptions suffice) but being most loudly championed via aggressive timelines and significant exaggerations.
The overreaction (on both sides) to be followed by fatigue and disinterest.
Because if we're unlucky, Scott will think in the final seconds of his life as he watches the world burn "I could have tried harder and worried less about my reputation".
I don't think it's a matter of being worried about reputation. Making credible predictions and rigorous analysis is important in all scenarios. If superintelligence really strikes in 2027, I feel like AI 2027 would be right only by coincidence, and would probably only have detracted from safety engineering efforts in the process.
It got traction because it supported everyone’s position in some way:
* Pro-safety folks could point at it and say this is why AI development should slow down or stop
* LLM-doomer folks (disclaimer: it me) can point at it and mock its pie-in-the-sky charts and milestones, as well as its handwashing of any actual issues LLMs have at present, or even just mock the persistent BS nonsense of “AI will eliminate jobs but the economy [built atop consumer spending] will grow exponentially forever so it’ll be fine” that’s so often spewed like sewage
* AI boosters and accelerationists can point to it as why we should speed ahead even faster, because you see, everyone will likely be fine in the end and you can totes trust us to slow down and behave safely at the right moment, swearsies
Good fiction always tickles the brain across multiple positions and knowledge domains, and AI 2027 was no different. It’s a parable warning about the extreme dangers of AI, but fails to mention how immediate they are (such as already being deployed to Kamikaze drones) and ultimately wraps it all up as akin to a coin toss between an American or Chinese Empire. It makes a lot of assumptions to sell its particular narrative, to serve its own agenda.
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