Everyone who buys a ticket believes they have a chance of winning, though in reality they do not.
What I mean is to say, it is a more honest/accurate statement that "you have zero chance of winning when you buy a lottery ticket" is more true than claiming they have a chance, (even if it is literally true) due to how our mind biases work.
> I assume them doing this now is Russia paving the way for a more traditional operation to begin when the ground freezes.
With what army? Most estimates state they have lost well over half of their combat power. Russia is not doing anything but slowly (or sometimes quickly) retreating.