I have been looking for something to make sense with this insanity. Every energy analyst I see says the world is rushing towards energy ruin. Yet stocks keep reaching all time highs as if it is just another day. Even if you wave a magic wand and eliminate all hostilities today, it will take months to years to get all of the infrastructure flowing at the same level as it was two months ago.
Yesterday, there was a news story saying that gas might soon dip below $4/gallon just because the strait was momentarily open again. Even if the strait had remained open for more than 24 hours, it is still going to take a month for the oil tankers in waiting to transit across the ocean. Months to refill reservoirs. Energy companies are not going to drop prices at a moments notice.
Which is of course discounting the political realities of the situation: Iran is in a fight for its life. Iran knows they need to stand firm or they will lose all autonomy and invite a future attack from Israel.
Traders have been using satellite images from around the world for DECADES, it seems more likely to be true than a conspiracy from a insider who actually makes the decision or has first line access to it.
in fact US army publicly admitting running a disinformation campaign involving flying planes knowing they would be seen by osint in the previous Iran attack from last summer
Are you implying that there is arbitrage between the prediction market and the real market? Until now we were assuming that the prediction market is self-contained, with its other side staying within the confines of the prediction market.
Even if you are not "betting" similar trades are happening in the stock market as well. Large movements in oil futures shortly before policy changes are announced.
Insider trading is at least regulated in the stock market, albeit imperfectly. Imagine how much worse it would be if C-levels could just short their own stock during a board meeting. No one without insider knowledge would touch it.
Matt Levine often says something like "insider trading is not about fairness, it's about theft." The problem isn't that it's less fair to some stock traders than others, and that stock trading should be some form of perfect gambling where everyone has an equal chance of success. Stock trading is inherently about exploiting information asymmetries — that is what all "non-insiders" are trying to do. But insider trading is wrong because it's effectively stealing confidential information from the company & shareholders, which is in violation of & conflict with the fiduciary responsibility that board members, executives, and employees generally have towards shareholders.
Conceptually, I think that is the right analogy to think about. Prediction markets "want" to be a more accurate source of information, just like stock markets, so from that lens "getting" information to be more accurate is good. When government officials are placing bets on prediction markets, though, it's a massive violation of operational security, and leaking confidential information. They probably think that they are acting anonymously, but it creates so many opportunities for unfriendly state actors to get information, especially if people do it consistently.
Yes, 100%, it is information asymmetry. It happens in every "market" in the world.
The goal should be to balance the information asymmetry, not burry it.
Government officials using their power to affect war decisions ought to be a crime on it's own, not surfacing the information to the public through a prediction market.
There is some bimodal distribution. I routinely encounter trucks where I cannot see over the hood. I suspect most of these vehicles have never carried so much as a 2x4 in the bed.
In New York, property values go up as they near transit lines. People want the option to use the public transit because it can dramatically improve access to the rest of the city.
Wow! Did you know that Abraham Lincoln let AI write the Gettysburg Address? 17 patterns identified out of only 305 words. I don't know why I ever let him get the ad revenue.
I tried that but most of those seem to be false positives. It seems to report Triple Construction based just on commas, which were apparently way more common in writing of the time. It also reports em-dashes which are obviously irrelevant in this case.
And nobody is really saying that you need to completely eliminate these constructs. 17 matches out of 305 words is an order of magnitude less than the example it opens with.
I am genuinely curious - would the navy shoot down a friendly nation tanker who was just trying to cross?
That would be an insane escalation that helps nobody. Instead, if they watched it float by, that makes the USA look impotent beyond belief. I suppose they could "just" seize it, but piracy is not much of an improved look.
Excellent point. If I were China, think you would be obligated to push the issue. Either the USA does nothing or steals a foreign ship. The only issue is I know that ship nationality can be complicated, unless there is a state-owned vessel they could use for the process.
No, I’m not. I’m pointing out that distillation doesn’t work how you were told it does in middle school which is the reflexive argument people are making. The argument that all the methanol comes out early because it has a lower boiling point is simply incorrect. Mass spectromery proves it.
When you get into distilling you learn pretty fast that a lot of what you’ve been told about it is fake due to both deliberate propaganda, and the fact that a lot of it was learned before we had scientific tools to investigate deeper.
You would pretty much have to try to poison yourself distilling and yet everybody thinks it’s a real risk.
Being poisoned by a bootlegger who adds methanol because it’s cheaper (much like fentanyl in opiods) is not a fake risk, and a lot of people who think the first thing happened actually had the second thing happen.
And I’m certainly not criticizing people for this, I went to school for physics and yet was on the other side of this debate when I started distilling before I did research.
Need a non-paywalled link to glean anything here, because the abstract does not mention the distillation method. Were they even trying to boil off the methanol first?
Yesterday, there was a news story saying that gas might soon dip below $4/gallon just because the strait was momentarily open again. Even if the strait had remained open for more than 24 hours, it is still going to take a month for the oil tankers in waiting to transit across the ocean. Months to refill reservoirs. Energy companies are not going to drop prices at a moments notice.
Which is of course discounting the political realities of the situation: Iran is in a fight for its life. Iran knows they need to stand firm or they will lose all autonomy and invite a future attack from Israel.
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