I don't know what exactly is the right analogy for this, but two other points of context which make me discredit this line of thinking.

1. Feature/smart 'Phones' were around before the iPhone *and* were already pretty much ubiquitous. VR headsets don't do much but sit on shelfs (either in people's houses or in distribution centres not being sold).

2. VR has arguably existed in some ways before the Quest, Nintendo Virtual Boy was from the mid-90s.

Maybe the iPhone comparison isn't right, but if we're decades into developing this technology and still very early in development I think we should assume we're a LONG way off these things becoming mainstream consumer devices and we should be wary of any company that brings them to the consumer market.

> VR headsets don't do much but sit on shelfs (sic)

Quest has 6+ million monthly active users. Steam 2-3 million. Sony doesn't publish numbers but a good guess is 3-4 million active players.

If you allow for some overlap, that's roughly ten million monthly users, and in sales VR is already more successful than a lot of computer platforms of the past.

> Sony doesn't publish numbers but a good guess is 3-4 million active players.

I find it really hard to believe that 3 million people put on PSVR2 every month. That thing gets basically no content.

Yea it’s not nothing, but that’s a rounding error on the number of smartphone users.

> Quest has 6+ million monthly active users. Steam 2-3 million.

There is no way that those numbers are right.

EDIT: Yeah, Steam has 120 million active users per month. And the 6+ million users for Quest is from 2022, during the pandemic and metaverse bubble. Would be curious to know the trends for 2023 and 2024 thought.

That would be SteamVR being discussed.